It’s been some time since my last blog. You may remember – it was July, Britain basked in very un-British hot weather, we were excited about the World Cup, and the government was in crisis. So much has changed… the football is a faded memory, it’s cold and miserable, but the one constant is the degree of political turmoil and high drama. In fact, you could say the government looked at the furore over the Prime Minister Theresa May’s Chequers deal and decided to dial it up to 11. January has witnessed the biggest defeat for a government in modern history, a vote of no confidence, the country more divided than ever and no real clarity on Brexit as the clock runs down to EU exit on 29 March 2019. So how did we get here?
THE NEGOTIATION
The government has spent the past months negotiating with the European Union to turn the Chequers agreement into a workable plan for Brexit. There were predictable areas of conflict – the status of the Irish border and the UK’s access to the European single market – and last minute wrangles with Spain over the status of Gibraltar in future trade negotiations. However, on 19 November the draft agreement was ratified by the other 27 members of the EU, allowing May to triumphantly declare that she had secured a deal that delivered on the will of the people following the 2016 referendum. The next step, following the amendments to the withdrawal bill pushed through earlier in the year, would be for the House of Commons to have a ‘meaningful vote’ on the deal – effectively giving Parliament rather than the government the final say on whether to accept the deal.
THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT
The Agreement sets out the terms on which the UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. Crucially, it does not deal with the complexities of the future trading relationship or a myriad of other details; that is all to be decided during a two-year transition period while the UK continues to effectively operate as a member of the EU and abide by its laws and regulations. In fact, despite being 599 pages long it is surprisingly vague on some of the key questions which will determine the economic direction of both the EU and the UK such as fisheries policy and the rights of UK citizens settled in the EU to continue to work and travel around Europe. Key agreements were set out, however, on a range of issues including the divorce bill for the UK and the Irish border. Under the agreement, if a trade deal can’t be reached by 2020 which avoids the need for a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, then the ‘backstop’ will come into force – this will consist of a single customs territory between the EU and the UK, effectively an extension of the existing customs union. It will persist until a trade agreement can be reached and the backstop can only be ended by agreement of both the EU and the UK – neither side can unilaterally pull out. On another intractable issue, the status of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in resolving future disputes, the agreement establishes an arbitration panel but gives the ECJ the power to make binding decisions on matters of EU law.
THE REACTION
The omens weren’t good for the government when on 15 November the Brexit secretary Dominic Raab resigned, unable to support the agreement. Remember, it was his department’s job to manage the negotiations and deliver Brexit – so he effectively resigned in protest because the agreement he delivered wasn’t good enough for him to accept. And it only went downhill from there. In a country and a Parliament deeply and bitterly divided over how to manage Brexit, the Withdrawal Agreement ironically served to unite the country. Everyone hated it. Hard Brexiteers claimed it didn’t deliver Brexit because we would remain too closely tied to the EU and subject to legal rulings from Brussels. The Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party (DUP – which the Conservative minority Government relies on to pass legislation and win votes in the House) were incensed by the backstop, claiming that it handed control of their border to the EU. The official opposition, the Labour Party, felt that it didn’t go far enough in guaranteeing workers rights, environmental standards and access to the single market. So strident was the opposition that The Prime Minister cancelled the vote planned for 11 December once it was clear that she faced a substantial defeat. Instead, she embarked on a whistle-stop tour of Europe to garner further concessions and clarifications from the EU, a tactic that was met with little enthusiasm. The message was clear – the deal is the deal, there can be no further negotiation. Returning with a rather uninspiring non-binding clarification document, May spent what must have been a rather un-festive Christmas period attempting to rally support amongst her MPs ahead of the postponed vote on 15 January.
THE VOTE
And so the moment of high drama arrived – 15 January, the meaningful vote. It was clear that May had been unsuccessful in winning over her colleagues so the only question was how severe the defeat would be. A smallish defeat would give her ammunition to renegotiate the deal slightly with the EU and then have another vote, a large defeat would leave the agreement dead in the water. The result was a defeat by 432 votes to 202, a whopping 350 vote margin. To understand the significance it is important to realise that in the UK the government very rarely loses a vote in the House of Commons. MPs are loyal, they follow the whip and excepting a few few rare and short lived minority governments, the ruling party of the day will command a majority of votes in the House. So a defeat by a handful of votes is bad, but a catastrophic 350-vote defeat has never been seen in modern times. The Labour opposition were quick to table a motion of no confidence in the government – clearly the government no longer had any credibility? In normal times the government would have realised the jig was up and called a General Election to avoid possible defeat, but these aren’t normal times. With Brexit scant months away there is no time to reset and start again, so we were faced with the bizarre spectacle of Brexiteer Conservative MPs who had rebelled against their leader on 15 January standing up in the House on 16 January and roundly praising her. The DUP also agreed to back May’s government (the only thing worse that May’s Withdrawal Agreement for them was the possibility of a Labour government) and so she narrowly won the vote and lived to fight on.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Now things really get interesting! Immediately following the confidence vote, May announced she would be inviting senior parliamentarians, including the leaders of the opposition parties, to urgent talks to agree what they would require to be able to support a revised agreement. Most agree that such overtures are about two years too late. She will make a statement to the House on Monday 21 January setting out the next steps from there, following initial discussions. The possibility of getting a deal looks bleak however. The Labour Party has 256 seats in the House (against the Conservative’s 317) and so are essential to her plan to pull together a cross-party coalition to outvote the hard line Brexiteers in her own party. But their leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has refused to even talk to her unless she formally removes the possibility of a no-deal Brexit – the UK leaving on 29 March without any kind of formal agreement in place. This she can’t do, as no-deal is the default option in legislation if a deal can’t be reached. So what are the possible outcomes? Well…
A negotiated deal
The Prime Minister may be able to offer enough concessions to parliamentarians to win their support for an amended deal. She could then take this back to Europe and negotiate an amended Agreement. And the UK could then leave the EU in an orderly fashion. The new deal could potentially include closer ties to the single market (to win support from Labour) and a re-negotiated backstop.
How likely is it? It’s a massive challenge. Given the scale of her defeat and the diametrically opposed positions of the various camps, reaching an acceptable compromise seems nigh on impossible. A possible tactic gaining in popularity is for the House of Commons to hold a series of ‘indicative votes’ on various scenarios, with MPs able to vote for as many as they would feel able to support. That would allow May to choose the option with the greatest overall popularity to take to the EU. In a further blow, the EU has made it clear they are not willing to compromise on the deal as it stands, though they do have a reputation for pushing negotiations to the wire and then agreeing to compromise, so that may change.
No-deal
If an agreement can’t be reached by 29 March then the default position is that the UK leaves the EU without a formal agreement. The possible impact of this is eye watering – the lack of formal regulations could interfere with goods entering the country or leaving, flights could be grounded, medicines could be in short supply and there would be pressure to reinstitute a hard border with Ireland. The UK would revert overnight to trading on World Trade Organisation rules, with a massive impact on business. The EU would also be hugely affected, not least because the UK’s sizeable contribution to the EU’s coffers would cease. Brexiteers claim that a lot of this is scaremongering and sensible arrangements could be put in place to mitigate the issues, and have started referring to a ‘managed no-deal’ as being the only true way to deliver Brexit. The government’s own assessment however makes clear that there would be significant disruption and damage to the economy.
How likely is it? There is still vehement opposition to leaving without a deal both in the House and across the country, and parliamentary shenanigans are afoot to block it (more on that later). But every day that passes increases the prospect; in response the British civil service has launched an unprecedented operation to prepare for the scenario.
A second referendum
Deemed impossible just a few months ago, there is growing support for what has been dubbed ‘a people’s vote’ on any final agreement. This could involve a referendum on several options – May’s revised deal, no-deal or staying in the EU. it is furiously derided by many however as a betrayal of the original referendum decision.
How likely is it? While gaining in popularity, particularly with old-style Remainers who see it as the only way to reverse Brexit, it is still a long shot. Only a minority of Labour MPs support it although there is evidence of growing support with Labour voters. And few Conservatives have so far come across. If the chaos deepens however, it may be seen as the the only way to break the impasse.
A snap General Election
Labour’s preferred option. They have pledged to keep pushing no confidence votes until they bring down the government and trigger a quick election. They hope to win the subsequent election and go back to Europe to negotiate a new deal.
How likely is it? Unlikely given the current sentiment in the House but if the government is unable to win backing for a new deal then they may gamble on an election (under a new leader) to improve the parliamentary arithmetic. Given how that worked out last time, however, it’s not a prospect the government would relish.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR NEXT WEEK
The Prime Minister’s statement on Monday may shed some light on next steps, which could include further negotiations and indicative votes. The aforementioned parliamentary shenanigans may derail that however as former Attorney General Dominic Grieve (who forced through the ‘meaningful vote’ in the first place) is seeking to table amendments to wrest control of the process from the government and give Parliament control of the agenda. Under the plan, if May is unable to come up with a plan by 11 February, senior legislators from all parties would be convened to pull something together by 5 March. This would be uncharted waters for the UK and could trigger a constitutional crisis, as effectively the legislative branch would be voting itself powers that are traditionally the prerogative of the executive. It’s difficult to see how May, and indeed her government, could survive that.
CONCLUSION
However it works out it’s looking increasingly likely that the UK won’t leave the EU on 29 March. Further negotiations will require time which is fast running out. The EU has indicated it will agree to pause the process and extend Article 50, but only for an election or referendum and not simply to reopen negotiations they insist are closed. They may relent though as the prospect of a catastrophic no-deal looms ever closer.
But it’s not all gloom. The recent dramatic votes, watched around the globe, have provided a wider audience to some magnificent parliamentary theatrics which have bemused some and delighted others. In particular, they have given millions the pleasure of watching the Speaker of the House John Bercow bellow ‘ORDER!’ at unruly MPs as only he can. Please watch and enjoy!
