This morning a tearful Theresa May bowed to the inevitable and announced her resignation as leader of the Conservative Party, and therefore as Prime Minister. She becomes the fourth Conservative Prime Minister in a row to lose her job as a result of Europe. Her position had finally become untenable following her hail Mary play to get her Brexit deal through Parliament backfired, attracting condemnation across Parliament. As one pundit put it, ‘The Dancing Queen has met her Waterloo.’ She had previously announced that she’d be stepping down but insisted that she wanted to see the UK leave the EU before her departure. That will not now happen, as there is still no firm date for Brexit.
What happens next?
There’s never a good time to resign to be honest, but this is a particularly bad time. Parliament will shortly rise for the Whitsun recess and then we have the 75th anniversary of the D-day landings and associated celebrations, including the controversial visit by President Trump beginning on 3 June. As a result, May will stay on as PM until 7 June to oversee those celebrations. The formal process to replace her will then begin, though the unofficial battle has been raging in the Conservative Party for some time. Unlike the US president, the UK Prime Minister isn’t directly elected – the PM is simply the leader of the largest party in the House of Commons. Therefore the process is to elect a new Conservative leader, not technically a new PM. This is a two stage process: first, Conservative MPs declare their candidacy (several have already done so). There then follows several rounds of voting by MPs to whittle the field down to two candidates. The Conservative Party membership is then balloted to make the final decision. Whoever wins the competition to become leader of the party also becomes Prime Minister of the country. Expect the whole thing to be done and dusted later in the summer – it usually takes two months but the formal timetable will be set out by the influential 1922 committee of backbench Conservative MPs.
Who are runners and riders?
The last competition of this kind in 2016, following the resignation of David Cameron, was a muted affair. There were only two candidates, and one of those quickly stood down allowing May to be appointed without the final ballot of party members. This time will be very different – there are currently 17 candidates touted as potential successors. Boris Johnson, arch-Brexiteer and ex-Mayor of London is the current favourite. He is a divisive figure however, oft portrayed as temperamentally unsuited for the top job given his tendency towards gaffes and inappropriate statements. His hard line Brexit views are also considered unacceptable to many Conservative MPs and there is a movement underway to deny him a place in the final two (a competition he would likely win). It’s worth noting that the initial favourite candidate has never won a a leadership election of this kind. Also emerging as a front runner is Dominic Raab, ex-Brexit Minister, a Brexiteer seen as a more moderate alternative to Johnson. And never rule out party heavyweight Michael Gove, often seen as the most qualified and statesman-like candidate. Then there are a plethora of other hopefuls, throwing their hats in the ring in the hope of being an acceptable compromise candidate or just to negotiate themselves plum cabinet posts in the new administration.
What about Brexit?
Formally, a new Prime Minister doesn’t change anything. We still have the same government and crucially the parliamentary arithmetic doesn’t change – the government remains deeply split on the way forward and still lacks a majority in the House. In reality though, this is a potential game changer. The new Prime Minister, particularly a Brexiteer PM such as Boris, will feel they can go back to the EU with a mandate for a fresh look at the deal on the table. The EU has been clear all along that it won’t renegotiate the deal, but the new PM will feel entitled to tear up May’s so-called red lines and start afresh. They may also be willing to wield the threat of no deal far more strongly that May, and depending on who wins they may be willing to let the country crash out of the EU without a deal in October. Expect a period of feverish negotiation over the summer.
It is customary, when a new PM is chosen, for them to call a general election as soon as possible and that’s a distinct possibility here – particularly if, as expected when the results are announced on Sunday, the Conservatives have suffered their worst election defeat ever in the European elections which were held yesterday. The facts remain that there is currently no parliamentary majority for a second referendum, no majority to support the current deal and no majority for leaving without a deal. A general election would shake this all up – if the new PM could win a large majority in a general election they would be able to force through their vision of Brexit despite opposition from other factions. It’s an incredible risky tactic however. There is widespread anger and disaffection in the country at the way May has handled the Brexit process. The new PM would have to distance themselves from this, which is a tall order. It’s likely the electorate would want to punish the Conservatives, perhaps by voting in large numbers for the new upstart Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage. The opposition Labour Party have long campaigned for a general election, and should under normal circumstances (remember them?) do well – a government tired after nearly 10 years in power, deeply riven and damaged, the official opposition should easily win a comfortable majority. But, as we know, these aren’t normal times. Labour voters are also angry at their party and it is expected to also do relatively badly in the European elections. It is seen as having no credible position on Brexit and no new answers, and with a controversial leader in Jeremy Corbyn. Polling does not suggest a general election will be an easy ride for Labour, and so we may well end up with another deeply divided parliament, perhaps with greater representation from smaller parties such as the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats.
A second referendum to reconsider or confirm a position on Brexit is also a possibility. There is currently no majority for this in parliament, but if a no-deal exit starts to seem inevitable, more moderate MPs may see a confirmatory vote of some kind as the lesser of two evils. It’s also possible that the Labour Party will bow to pressure from its MPs and the grassroots of the party and adopt a second referendum as its formal position, potentially running a general election campaign on that basis. This will not necessarily result in Brexit being cancelled of course – while polling seems to give remain a narrow majority, that was also the case before the last referendum. The electorate is so volatile that it’s impossible to predict which way it would go, but it is likely the result would be close again and do little to resolve the deep divisions in the country. Time is also against it – the UK currently has to leave the EU on 31 October 2019 or before and arranging and conducting a referendum ideally takes at least 12 months. The UK could ask for yet another extension from the EU but there is no guarantee they would be willing to grant it. The country would then be left with two stark choices – leave without a deal, and face the potential economic impact that would entail, or revoke Article 50, cancel Brexit, perhaps with a view to restarting the two-year clock at a later date.
In Summary…
So…. anyone hoping for the Brexit showrunners to wrap up the final season quickly and neatly are likely to be disappointed. it’s more likely that we face a George R R Martin-esque wait for a resolution that is likely to be just a divisive as any long running HBO saga!