With the midterm elections, more states turned blue than we had seen in a decade. As of this month, Democrats hold the majority in the House and Republicans in the Senate. At the state level, the number of trifectas has increased, which should result in better legislative “effectiveness” over the coming months, meaning a higher percentage of bills will be passed. So what will this all mean for you? In this post, we will look at key upcoming legislative trends for 2019, including hot topics that are likely to be legislated upon.
An increase in Democrat trifectas
Before the mid-terms, there were 34 trifectas in the United-States: 26 Republicans and 8 Democrats. A trifecta is where a single party holds the governorship as well as the majority in the Senate and the house.
As of this month, Democrats now hold 14 trifectas and Republicans 22. This means 34.4% of Americans live under a Democratic trifecta, whereas 41.9% live under a Republican one. New blue trifectas include New York, where Democrats won the Senate, and Maine, where they took both the Senate and governorship.
Source: BallotPedia: https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas#Percentage_of_Americas_living_under_trifecta_government
This increased number of state trifectas should translate in a hike in legislative effectiveness, as all branches are politically aligned. This should balance the expected gridlock in the split Congress, and lead to an overall rise in the number of new laws passed across the nation.
Hot topics for 2019
Here are four topics likely to be discussed in state legislatures across the country:
Up to 30 states including Kentucky, Missouri and Montana are likely to work on betting-related bills following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), which means that betting on sports is now possible outside Nevada. The industry is pushing for low regulation and taxation. For more see this webinar held shortly after the Court’s decision.
Justice reform was a hot topic during the midterm elections, both because of candidates’ platforms and because many states had questions on the ballot. States like Kentucky and Wyoming are likely to pursue bills to reduce their incarceration rate. Some states could follow California, which got rid of money bail last summer so that posting bail is no longer a requirement in order to be released. See also our closer look at some Hawaii bills that failed in 2018 but may be back in 2019.
Sales tax.
A June 2018 Supreme Court ruling allows states to start collecting sale tax on online purchases, even if the retailer doesn’t have a physical presence within the state. This could translate in billions in new revenue. States now need to legislate to conform their tax codes to the new federal law on taxation, which also includes the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Many have already begun, a trend sure to continue into 2019.
Over 49,000 people died in 2017 of overdoses linked to painkillers, according to the CDC. The Senate passed an opioid bill in September, aiming to better prevent and treat addiction. However, many states are expected to work on their own legislation this year to supplement its shortcomings. For instance, in Minnesota, a bill in the House includes means like “education, treatment, new prescribing rules, monitoring of sales” to fight the crisis. Over 30 states already have bills limiting the use of opioids. We also took a closer look at bills relating to opioids and schools last year. All of these ideas and more are sure to be explored in the coming sessions.
With the states likely to pass more legislation more quickly this year, these are just some of the topics you might want to keep your eye on. For your own free BillTrack50 account to research new bills relevant to your interests, register here or see our getting started tips here.